Eighteen months into Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, two things seem clear. First, the war matters. After 15 years of failed Western responses to Russian aggression against Georgia and Ukraine, another failure to contain and deter Russia would have catastrophic consequences around the world.

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President Donald Trump shakes hands with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen as he announces a trade deal with the EU at Trump Turnberry golf club on July 27, 2025, in Turnberry, Scotland. (Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)